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Thursday, June 29, 2006

Home prices still rising from last year

For release:Tuesday, June 27, 2006

C.A.R. reports median price of a home in California at $564,430 in May, up 8 percent from year ago; sales decrease 21.1 percent

LOS ANGELES (June 27) – The median price of an existing home in California increased 8 percent in May and sales decreased 21.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
“The median price of a home continued to increase in May, but at a more sustainable 8 percent rate,” said C.A.R. President Vince Malta. “This is the first time since November 2001 that the median price did not increase by double digits, reflecting the return to the more balanced market that we have anticipated.
“Interest rates, while still historically low, continue to impact sales as did the inventory of homes for sale, which reached nearly a six-month supply in May,” he said. “It’s important that consumers work with their REALTOR® to ensure that their home is competitively priced in today’s changing market.”
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 488,260 in May at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity decreased 21.1 percent from the 618,920 sales pace recorded in May 2005.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2006 would be if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2006 was $564,430, an 8 percent increase over the revised $522,530 median for May 2005, C.A.R. reported. The May 2006 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with April’s revised $561,750 median price.
“Year-to-date sales are down 19.5 percent, in line with our recently revised 2006 California Housing Market Forecast, which projected a 16.8 percent decrease in sales for this year to 520,000 units compared with 2005,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “We expect the rate of home price appreciation to increase 8 percent to $565,900 for the year as a whole, compared with the impressive double-digit gains we’ve witnessed over the past four years.”
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for May 2006:
. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in May 2006 was 5.9 months, compared with 2.7 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
. Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 6.6 percent during May 2006, compared with 5.72 percent in May 2005, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 5.63 percent in May 2006 compared with 4.23 percent in May 2005.
. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 44 days in May 2006, compared with 27 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
Regional MLS sales and price information is contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums are based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.
In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 84.4 percent, or 348 out of 405 cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The top 10 lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)
Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online at http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzYzOTk=.
. Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during May 2006 were: Laguna Beach, $1,692,500; Saratoga, $1,500,000; Burlingame, $1,371,000; Newport Beach, $1,336,000; Manhattan Beach, $1,241,500; Los Gatos, $1,180,000; Santa Monica, $1,162,500; Rancho Palos Verdes, $1,144,000; Lafayette, $1,142,500; Calabasas, $1,130,000; Santa Barbara, $1,130,000.
. Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in May 2006 compared with the same period a year ago were: Santa Monica, 60.3 percent; Ridgecrest, 56.3 percent; Adelanto, 42.5 percent; Loma Linda, 36.7 percent; Barstow, 36 percent; Laguna Beach, 33.8 percent; Delano, 33.3 percent; Tustin, 32.8 percent; Campbell, 32 percent; California City, 30.6 percent.
Leading the way...® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States, with more than 185,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Annual Harvard Study Reports Sharp Drop Unlikely for Real Estate Market

Harvard Releases the 2006 State of the Nation’s Housing Report

RISMEDIA, June 15, 2006—With interest rates rising and speculative demand cooling, the housing boom is coming under pressure, finds this year’s State of the Nation’s Housing report. As long as the economy continues to create jobs and builders trim production to match slowing demand, house prices will keep climbing and the housing sector will likely achieve a soft landing. Although house price growth will likely moderate in many areas, sharp drops in house prices are unlikely anytime soon. Major house price declines seldom occur in the absence of severe overbuilding, major job loss, or a combination of heavy overbuilding and modest job loss. Fortunately, these preconditions are nowhere in evidence across the nation’s metropolitan areas. Even with higher interest rates and home prices crimping affordability, the lure of house price appreciation continues to draw homebuyers to the market. While the national homeownership rate edged down a tenth of a percent in 2005, it increased in the West and Northeast where house price growth was the strongest. In fact, about 1 million homeowners were added nationally last year. Mortgage innovations such as low-downpayment, hybrid-adjustable, and interest-only loans helped blunt the impact of higher home prices and interest rates. “While homeowners with annually adjusting mortgage rates are facing interest increases this year, including those with expiring teaser discounts, only about one in 10 homeowners face higher mortgage payments this year” remarks Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Fully eight in 10 owners has no mortgage or a fixed-rate mortgage, and most owners with adjustable loans have an initial fixed-rate period of three or more years. Similarly, most interest-only loans extend for at least five years, leaving ample time to move, refinance, or incomes to grow before principal payments start coming due. But, the report cautions, five years of unprecedented house price appreciation and decades of land use restrictions that make building affordable housing difficult are adding to widespread housing affordability problems. From 2001 to 2004 alone, the number of households spending more than half their incomes on housing increased by 14 percent to 15.8 million. The paradox of today’s housing market is that while more people are building home equity than ever before, slow growth in wages for households in the bottom three-quarters of the income distribution is not keeping pace with escalating housing costs. Amidst a housing boom, it is now impossible to build housing at prices anywhere near what low-income households can afford without subsidies. Further, the report draws attention to the problems of concentrated poverty. Neighborhood decline is fuelling the loss of affordable housing and exposing residents to poor neighborhood conditions. From 1993-2003 the supply of rentals affordable on a $16,000 income fell by 1.2 million, while in 2001 12 percent of such rentals were operated at a loss. This year’s report also highlights the significant contribution that the foreign-born and minorities will make to overall household growth. New household projections incorporating higher but more realistic immigrant assumptions suggest household growth will accelerate to 14.6 million over the next ten years from 12.6 million over the last ten. “Strong household growth, combined with record incomes and wealth, will lift housing investments to new highs next decade,” remarks Eric Belsky, executive director of the Joint Center. “Each generation is achieving higher homeownership rates, incomes, and wealth than the one ahead of it, with the leading edge of the echo baby boom now in their 20s and the baby bust now in their 30s starting off on especially high paths. This is despite the fact that each younger generation has successively higher shares of foreign-born and minority household heads with lower average incomes than same-age native-born whites.” “Even as the housing industry looks past the current softness to robust growth in the decade ahead, the challenges of providing affordable housing for low-income, and increasingly even middle-income households, are clear,” concludes Retsinas. “Slow growth in domestic discretionary spending at the federal level and the reluctance of state and local governments to relieve intense barriers to the production of more affordable housing make the road ahead difficult. Unless governments step up to these challenges, spending on housing will increasingly crowd out spending on pensions and savings among those with low and moderate incomes.” Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies is the nation’s leading center for information and research on housing in the United States. Established in 1959, the Joint Center is a collaborative unit affiliated with the Harvard Design School and the Kennedy School of Government. The Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies is Nicolas P. Retsinas. The Center’s research and additional information about its programs and activities are available at www.jchs.harvard.edu.